There’s nothing like a day on the Fibresand. Bar Cheltenham, and perhaps attending a meeting at Chester, betting at Southwell is one of my favourite racing pastimes…
Royal Holiday is the horse top of my punting list today in the 32Red Casino Handicap (4:30).
The selection rarely runs a bad race over this trip and at this track, racking up five course wins throughout his career.
The prices don’t reflect his chances up against the favourite Repetition, who may have shown too much of his hand to the handicapper now. Royal Holiday finished upsides the favourite at Thirsk recently and is now almost 9lbs better off at the weights at a track where he excels. It’s a no brainer to back him each-way at 13/2 as long as all eight run.
Three points each way.
Favourite Victorian Number is screaming to be taken on in the Newark Festival 2014 Handicap (2:30). The 9/4 favourite has plenty going for him on this type of surface – he’s a reliable starter and travels well in his races – but his finishing kick and attitude in a finish makes him a very weak market leader.
Five wins from 32 starts is a poor record for a horse with this much class and on his both starts at Southwell he’s been run out of things in the final 100 yards after trading short in running.
Finding one to take him on with is always tricky when betting at this kind of level as all horses in this handicap bracket are riddled with inconsistency. Putin has good course form but is coming back off a break while although Michael Appleby horses are to be given huge respect at Southwell, Tony Hollis has struggled when faced with this surface in the past.
The one I’m going to give an each-way chance to is Spirit Rider at 9/1 with Bet365.
In truth, he’s usually a horse I would be against due to his laziness from the gates and tendency to get stuck in the kick-back but with a little more alertness from the stalls he showed last time he could be a horse to follow on the surface now he’s tumbled down the weights.
He ran his best race since switching from John Gosden’s yard last time out when finishing strongly over a mile after being hopelessly tailed off at one stage. The drop back to seven is hardly ideal but at 9/1 he’s worth a calculated gamble to stay on past the favourite, who will throw in the towel at the finish.
Get on with a one point each-way stake.
Profit and Loss Record Staked: 331pts Returned: 447.87pts P/L: +116.87pts
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