Lewis Jones has penned an apology to followers for yesterday’s disaster but is back in the saddle to go value hunting at Newcastle today….
Hands up. Load the gun. Yesterday was a complete disaster. Everything about the bet I advised was fanciful. Using good old Henry Hindsight, it was a bet that should never have been allowed for public viewing.
Putting up a 3pts EW selection based on a horse’s breeding for a race at Southwell was one of the stupidest moves I’ve made since asking that girl if she wanted to dance to Aqua at a Primary School disco in 1999.
The horse was also subject of a monstrous market move moments after I submitted the piece to be published and in truth, the move from 25/1 to 12/1 drained out any value in his chances. But the copy had already been submitted and there was no way out.
The selection ran a dismal race and to make matters worse my old mate Sam Spade (who is an underrated machine on Fibresand under Dale Swift) powered clear at a much bigger price of 7/2 than I anticipated. Lesson learned, and we move on.
During this losing run I can legitimately claim that I’ve been rather unlucky on a few occasions, but there was no excuse yesterday. I apologise if anyone backed the horse at 12/1 with 3pts EW stakes, it was terrible advice. Today is another though and I’m looking forward to hopefully getting a return on my investment backing course-and-distance winner Fieldgunner Kirkup each way in the 7f handicap at Newcastle (4:50).
The 10/1 shot has plenty going for him today in a very appealing each-way race. Trainer David Barron, a bit of a master with these types of horses, usually targets this race with one of his more well-handicapped sorts having won it twice with just four runners since 2007.
The six-year-old was progressing through the handicaps nicely this time last year, reaching a mark of 87 but a dramatic loss in form has seen him plummet down the ratings. Barron’s charge had been showing little love for the game until last time out at Thirsk in a decent event where he finished on strongly to finish sixth after getting hampered in his run.
That was enough for me to think this horse is on the way back to form and off a mark 76 he should be very competitive at this level.
Get on the 10/1 with two point each-way stakes.
Profit and Loss Record Staked: 276pts Returned: 401.77pts P/L: +118.77pts
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