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Today’s Racing News: State’s the Man for another Mullins Punchestown Grade 1 success

Money Talk

Money Talk continues to highlight the Betfair Sportsbook big-money moves to keep you in the loop. This section highlights market moves between 1:00 am and 9:00 am.

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Cheltenham hosts their Hunter’s Chase meeting today, which brings a close to the venue for the racing season.

Newmarket begins their Guineas meeting today, and the 13:15 sees a clutch of promising newcomers. Malrescia 5.59/2 for George Boughey sees William Buick take the ride, and he has a 30% strike rate for this yard.

In the 13:50 at Newmarket, Derby credentials are on the line. Subastar 2.35/4 and Hoo Ya Mal 4.03/1 both have entries, while Charlie Appleby has said that Nations Pride 2.47/5 will take in a Derby Trail after this if successful.

Trainer Richard Hannon is profitable GBP94 to a GBP1 level stake with his three-year-olds at Newmarket. Today he partner’s with Ryan Moore with recent eye-catcher Gubbass 2.35/4 in the 14:25, who looks sure to improve for his seasonal return.

Hold-up horses to come to the fore?

In the 15:00 at Newmarket, there is a lot of pace in this small field 7f contest. Shine So Bright 3.7511/4 wears a first-time hood and his trainer Andrew Balding has a 17% strike rate with horses returning from 150 days or more in a hood. He also has form figures of 1102 when returning off a break, still he has never convinced over this trip of 7f.

In the 14:40 at Goodwood, Stone Of Destiny 4.57/2 will look to go one better than in this race last year off of a three pounds lower handicap mark. There is tones of pace in this race which should set up well for a closer but Live In The Dream 7.513/2 represents the value after finishing ahead of the above mentioned in Meydan. He is very well handicapped on the balance of his form and has an excellent record fresh.

Twilight Madness 3.02/1 will look to continue on his upward curve in the 15:50 at Goodwood. He is six pounds better off with old rival Chipstead 4.57/2 for a three-length win over him last season and should be able to lead from pillar to post. Jockey Tom Marquand has a 25% strike rate for trainer Simon Hodgson.

Honeysuckle is the big draw at Punchestown on day four as she looks to continue her sparkling unbeaten record at skinny odds of 1/5 in the 17:25. What a sensational horse!

Jockey Frankie Dettori makes a rare trip to Newcastle today for three rides. He has only been here three times in the last five years and takes the ride on Francesco Clemente 1.84/5 17:35, Peter The Great 2.26/5 18:10 and Society Lion 4.03/1 19:20.

Horses for courses

This section highlights the best bets from horses that have won twice or more at today’s tracks.

14:40 Goodwood – Atalanta’s Boy – Has won here five times (62%)
16:00 Wolverhampton – Cicely – Has won here twice (100%)
20:30 Newcastle – Blackcurrent – Has won here four times (50%)

Weighted to go well

“Weighted to go well” highlights horses running that are more than 10lbs below their last winning handicap mark.

15:50 Goodwood – Count Otto – Has won off 91 runs off 81
19:55 Newcastle – Tathmeen – Has won off 71 runs off 58
20:30 Newcastle – Mutabaahy – Has won off 76 runs off 57

Furthest traveller

Today’s furthest traveller is trainer Charles Hills who makes the 283-mile journey from his Lambourne base to Newcastle with The Kings Knight in the 19:20. Hills has a 22% strike rate here and is profitable to back blind.

Race of the day

We head to Newmarket for their 14:25 King Charles II Stakes, and this could prove a very good opening for Richard Hannon’s Gubbass, who caught the eye running on strongly behind the smart Perfect Power in the Greenham Stakes a Newbury.

SBK11/8

EXC2.68

Trainer: Richard Hannon
Jockey: Ryan Moore
Age: 3
Weight: 9st 0lbs
OR:

He was outpaced early on, and given he won the Super Sprint over five furlongs at the same venue last season; there’s good reason to think he was simply a little rusty and should improve a good deal for the run.

He is very straightforward and has stamina in abundance, given there was no hiding place in the Greenham Stakes, and even if this does turn tactical, he has a turn of foot to get him out of trouble. He ticks plenty of boxes today.

SBK11/4

EXC3.75

Trainer: Marcus Tregoning
Jockey: Jim Crowley
Age: 3
Weight: 9st 0lbs
OR:

Ribhi has become an enigma with my initial thoughts on him thinking he was a stiffer test of stamina, but it could be that he wants a drop to a sprinting distance. Either way, today will reveal more, and he is open to plenty of improvement after catching the eye here behind New Science on seasonal return. He will need to improve on that bare form to land a blow here, but it will be interesting to see if connections try to make the running.

Big race verdict

A good race this with the above two mentioned taken to come to the fore. Noble Truth is clearly a talented horse on his day, but he is a quirky customer and can be very free, so he may be best watched on this seasonal return.

Gubbass has plenty in his favour, and the feeling is there is more to come from him this season the further he goes, and with Ryan Moore in the saddle, he is very hard to knock, so he gets the vote.

Punchestown day four tips

Mark Milligan is back with a look at day 4 of the Punchestown Festival, where he has a couple of selections, including one in the big race of the day…

Read Mark’s tips here.

State Man a Grade 1 winner in waiting

The best bet on the Punchestown card is State Man in the 18:00. The County Hurdle winner sluiced home off a handicap mark of 140 at Cheltenham but only went down that route because of a fall on his first outing for the yard back in December, and that looks to have been a blessing given he would have bumped into the mighty Constitution Hill if not.

SBK11/10

EXC2.16

Trainer: W. P. Mullins, Ireland
Jockey: P. Townend
Age: 5
Weight: 11st 10lbs
OR:

State Man has a wonderful opportunity here to gain his first Grade 1 success, and the step up in distance will only see him improve further. His future certainly lies in middle distance trips, and he has achieved more than most in this below-par year for 2m-2m4f Novice Hurdlers, and his untapped potential makes him a mouth-watering proposition in this contest.

He arrives here fresher than his two main market rivals, so he may have most to fear from stablemate Kilcruit, who is two for two at this venue but has had his stamina exposed previously when trying this distance. State Man can round off a near-perfect season with a victory today.

Final Word

The cross over between the National Hunt season and the flat season means the amount of usual bets significantly increases, and that’s the case with the racing tomorrow! It’s very difficult to try and curb your enthusiasm when so many opportunities arise for a punt, but it’s always worth telling yourself that it’s times like these where discipline can prove vital.I probably bet in a higher volume than most tipsters in terms of the number of selections I will have per day, so naturally, the return on investment will be smaller. Still, turnover is key, and if you’re not punting, you’re not winning, but at this time of year, I have to try and keep the selections to a minimum.Tomorrow is officially the last time I will look at the National Hunt scene until October, and I think it’s important for any punter to have a cut-off point. Too much racing to focus on leads to too many bets/selections, which leads to disaster. Finding a happy medium is key.Until tomorrow, be lucky!Follow Daryl Carter on Twitter @DarylCarter7

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