There are four meetings for Daryl Carter to get stuck into today and our man offers up all the information for the day’s racing.
It’s a quiet start to the week, as you would expect, after a busy Christmas period. There’s one I like today at an each-way price in a race extra place race on the Betfair Sportsbook, but for today’s race of the day, we head to Southwell for their competitive 14:20.
Money Talk continues to highlight the Betfair Sportsbook big-money moves to keep you in the loop. This section highlights market moves between 1:00 am and 9:00 am.
The morning market drifters !
Which horse is the Betfair Sportsbook market suggesting to Lay?
13:20 Southwell – Itso Fury 7/4 OUT 9/4
Mark your card
The Betfair Sportsbook is paying extra places today!
In the 14:00 Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase, Broadway Joe 2.47/5 will bid for a four-timer after a ten pound rise for his latest success over course and distance, which forces him into a class 3 for the first time. It could pay to take a second look at Kakamora 2.77/4, who will find this easier than his debut assignment at Wincanton, for which the handicapper dropped him three pounds for his debut effort.
At Musselburgh today, trainer Olly Murphy has a 38% overall strike rate and over fences, he is two for five (40%). He saddles Eaglehill 3.55/2, his only runner of the day in the 15:00 Musselburgh Handicap Chase.
In the 15:30 Open National Hunt Flat Race, trainer Peter Niven has a 31% strike rate in races of this nature at Musselburgh. He has scored with five of his 16 bumper runners and today saddles newcomer Clova Hotel 7.06/1. In the same race, Tom George has only sent four bumper horses to this venue and has scored with two of them. He saddles Dom Bosco 6.511/2.
At Southwell, plenty of trainers have good strike rates over fences, and the 12:50 Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Novices’ Handicap Chase looks one of the most competitive races on the card.
Trainer Harry Fry saddles Revels Hill 7.513/2 and will look to enhance his 33% strike rate at Southwell while trainer Justin Landy saddles outsider of the field Lalochezia 34.033/1 but has an excellent 50% over strike rate here and a 100% (one for one) record over fences.
Trainer Anthony Honeyball makes the 205-mile journey to Southwell today for one runner in the 13:20 Open Maiden NH Flat Race. He runs Pour Me Another 15.014/1 in a bid to enhance his excellent 33% strike rate in bumpers.
Horses for courses
This section highlights horses that have won twice or more at today’s tracks and could be in with a chance today.
12:40 Lingfield – Prince Rock – Has won here four times (20%)
13:00 Musselburgh – Blooriedotcom – Has won here twice (67%)
14:50 Southwell – Debden Bank – Has won here twice (50%)
15:40 Lingfield – Shamshon – Has won here twice (22%)
Weighted to go well
“Weighted to go well” highlights horses running that are more than 10lbs below their last winning handicap mark.
12:40 Lingfield – Spring Romance – Has won off 76 runs off 63
15:00 Musselburgh – Elmono – Has won off 122 runs off 112
15:40 Lingfield – Strong Power – Has won off 75 runs off 65 – Good chance
18:30 Wolverhampton – Aljari – Has won off 92 runs off 81
This section highlights a trainer, owner or jockey who is in excellent current form and their runners or rides for the day.
Jockey Jamie Moore has ridden eight winners from his last 32 rides for a 25% strike rate. Today he heads to Southwell for three rides, where all of his mounts are priced 20/1 plus.
The double pays 17.016/1
Race of the day
We head to Southwell for their highly competitive 14:20 Handicap Hurdle, in which four of the nine runners wear new or first-time headgear.
It looks a trappy heat with some old well-handicapped favourites and some young unexposed horses, one of which dominates the top of the market.
Brorson didn’t need to improve to win at Catterick last time and holds significant potential now up to three miles for the first time. He caught the eye on handicap debut, running on strongly from the rear of the field over two miles off of this opening handicap mark of 117, and that run would suggest that this mark is not beyond him.
He is a very likeable horse that is going the right way, but whether he deserves to be quite as short as evens is debatable.
He needs to prove his stamina for this test, and he steps into a deep open handicap against experienced rivals for the first time. It would be no surprise to see him win, but he is zero for two at this track and backing horses like this at the top of the market is a death sentence to punters. Surely he goes off bigger.
Dell’ Arca may be a 13-year-old, but he has shown the fire still burns bright after a good second at Chepstow behind an improver, and he sits on his last winning handicap mark.
He is certainly not the force of old, but he is dangerous to discount in what looks a lesser contest on paper than his latest assignment.
Finawn Bawn is similarly unexposed as the favourite after just seven career starts and has some solid back form from 2018/19 to make him look dangerously well-handicapped back over hurdles.
He returned to action on the back of a 748 absence over fences at Ayr, but his jumping is simply not good enough.
The revert back to hurdles and the first time cheek-pieces are reasons to expect a bolder display today, and although he comes with risks attached, his price does compensate.
He is one of the more interesting runners.
Big race verdict
Brorson looks the most likely winner if continuing on this upward curve, but there are dangers further down the betting. It might pay to take a small each-way chance on FINAWN BAWN, who shaped as though he retains plenty of potential on return, and he should strip fitter for that run today. There are reasons to think he will put in a better showing and his back form is hard to ignore in this company.
Timeform ready to roar at Wolverhampton
Timeform’s Adam Houghton highlights a Nap, Next Best and Each-Way selection at Wolverhampton on Monday.
Republican to pay the way on Monday
Southwell’s 12:50 Novices’ Handicap Chase is a hot race for a class 4 race on a Monday afternoon. Still, Oliver Sherwood’s Republican is a horse I have been waiting to reappear since his Warwick seasonal return in November.
Absolutely nothing went right for him on that occasion. He was hampered early on, which caused a few hairy jumps over the first handful of fences and then once warming to the task, he has almost been dragged off the course and through the inside rail.
His hold up position was also unfavourable in a slowly run contest, and the race has surprisingly worked out well.
He is entitled to improve today. His latest effort shouldn’t be held against him, especially given his unexposed chasing profile after just three starts over fences. This is his optimum trip for which he has had few opportunities, and he has already proven when over hurdles that this handicap mark is well within reach.
He makes plenty of each-way appeal with the Sportsbook paying four places.
Cheltenham Festival Focus
Missed this week’s Cheltenham Focus? Not to worry you can find it here.
It’s a brand new year which means a clean slate and plenty of new and exciting opportunities for the year ahead, even for punters.
Lee Mottershead recently wrote a good article where a handful of professional punters gave their thoughts on the sport and how they see the future of betting. Simon Nott also wrote an excellent piece asking a handful of his contacts for their advice for the new year.
Both articles are great and should be given a look. However, be sure to know that nothing replaces hard work.
You can have all the angles and edges you like, but when you sleep on a win in this game, you wake up with a loss.
I see one comment previously (not from the above articles) suggesting that you need to have a healthy balance between work life and recreational time – that has never been further from the truth if you want to make this game pay.
The harsh reality is that this job requires 18 hours a day, getting up before everyone else to get a head start, having tunnel vision and working relentlessly every time you are at the computer.
I am not a big fan of the “hitchhiker professional punter”, as I would call them. They are usually the face – a bit like Colonel Sanders at KFC – but often doing very little of the work. They wait for a text from a contact or a friend who has put in the 18 hours graft and then stroll around like they have a willing formula – admire these people if you must but don’t follow suit.
Hard work beats talent when talent doesn’t work hard is a saying you should stand by when it comes to punting full-time, in fact, any walk of life.
That’s today’s philosophical final word!
Until tomorrow, be lucky!
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