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Today’s Racing News: Lingfield the feature as Isola Rossa looks for compensation

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In the 14:50 at Lingfield, jockey Rossa Ryan has a 29% strike rate when teaming up with trainer George Boughey on the all-weather. Today they partner with Rock Girl 3.55/2, who made a promising debut over course and distance 17 days ago.

The 16:15 at Fakenham is the Norfolk National Handicap Chase, Game Line 3.7511/4 will bid for back to back wins, but he doesn’t arrive here in quite the same form as last term. Tommy Beau 5.04/1 arrives on a steep upward curve.

Potters Legend has form figures of 1F122 at Fakenham, and how fitting it would be to see the 12-year-old end his career on a high today in the Norfolk National.

Trainer John McConnell will look to continue as he left off last season with his runner Hereditary Rule 3.55/2 at Ayr in the 15:50. The trainer had 14 winners from 58 runners in Britain last season for a 24% strike rate.

Trainer Gordon Eliott is also out in force at Ayr. He has four runners there today, three ridden by Sean Bowen and together, they struck up a 35% strike rate in the 2021/22 season.

At Wetherby, trainer Mick Easterby quickly turns out Pivoting 10.09/1 in the 19:40 and his runners, when turned out within 15 days, do much better than the market expects with an A/E of 1.62. He has a 16% strike rate, turning out within 15 days in the last four weeks.

Horses for courses

This section highlights the best bets from horses that have won twice or more at today’s tracks.

15:25 Lingfield – Isola Rossa – Has won here twice (50%)
16:00 Lingfield – Count Otto – Has won here five times (26%)
16:35 Lingfield – Bowling Russain – Has won here twice (50%)

Weighted to go well

“Weighted to go well” highlights horses running that are more than 10lbs below their last winning handicap mark.

14:30 Fakenham – Elkstone – Has won off 112 runs off 91
14:40 Ayr – Old Jewry – Has won off 97 runs off 83
17:32 Ayr – Ardera Cross – Has won off 114 runs off 98

Furthest traveller

Today’s furthest traveller is trainer John Joseph Hanlon who has made the 343-mile journey to Ayr with two runners: Woodbrook Boy 6.511/2 17:32 and Brown Monday 21.020/1 18:05. These are the trainer’s first runners at Ayr.

Race of the day

It was slim pickings for this section today but Lingfield’s 15:25 1m Handicap looks like a good race to have a crack at.

SBK85/40

EXC3.3

Trainer: James Fanshawe
Jockey: William Buick
Age: 4
Weight: 9st 10lbs
OR: 81

Today’s favourite, Isola Rossa, was unlucky in her run here 18 days ago in arguably a stronger contest than this. It’s no surprise to her heading affairs especially given she has recorded the fastest course and distance time in my book and still looks to be on an upward curve.

She likes it here with two-course wins under her belt, and she is hard to knock, albeit you do get the feeling that the 1m distance is at the edge of her stamina range. She should take a good bit of beating if getting the breaks.

SBK5/2

EXC4.1

Trainer: Adam West
Jockey: Jack Mitchell
Age: 4
Weight: 9st 0lbs
OR: 71

Daphne May won extremely well here 13 days ago, and although she has more on her plate, she was value for more than the winning distance suggests after having a denied passage at a crucial time. She matched her career-best figures with that performance, and although up in grade, it’s hard to suggest she won’t improve again.

SBK7/1

EXC10

Trainer: Alexandra Dunn
Jockey: Daniel Muscutt
Age: 5
Weight: 8st 12lbs
OR: 69

The Rain King is one of the more interesting runners in the field, given his eye-catching performance at Windsor on the back of a wind surgery and a 145 daybreak when denied a clear run. He has a bit to prove back on the all-weather, but his sole effort on this surface could be forgiven given the wind surgery came shortly after. Formerly with Aidan and Donnacha O’Brien, he is the unknown quantity in the race, and the handicapper has given him every chance by dropping him 20 pounds since joining this yard for five flat runs.

On the balance of his form, he has shown he should prove ahead of the handicapper sooner or later, and with the wind surgery seemingly successful, he could easily prove a different proposition today.

Big race verdict

This is a good race for the grade, and it’s tempting to take a chance on The Rain King, but he may be best watched for now, so the offering is Isola Rossa, who can gain compensation for her unlucky run here last time.

Timeform draw the sword at Ayr

Timeform’s Tony McFadden highlights a NAP and Next Best selection at Ayr on Tuesday.

Final Word: Ratings

It’s low graded action across the board today, with the highest grade race a class three, and there are only three of those across today’s 43 races – heaven for some, hell for others.At this level, I do find some trainer comments rather strange. There is one today where a trainer says:”…but he is probably back to a mark that he can win off.”This is about a horse that is 3-30 under rules, his highest handicap mark is 128, he is running off 123 today, and he has consistently been rated between 124 and 128.To put it plainly, I see so many people making this mistake, and whether a horse is rated 128 or 124 makes no difference unless he is eligible to drop-in class or there is a reason for improvement. Four pounds does not make a difference and the other comment from the Racing Post: “He is 1lb below his last winning mark” – means nothing also. That’s not the reason a horse will or won’t win.One pound means nothing! Ten pounds does because it’s highly likely to see the horse drop in grade from what they are used to running against, but it’s not the difference in handicap mark as much as it is the class of race a horse is running in.If people make cases for horses and use the reasoning as “one pound below his last winning mark” as the basis of their argument that the horse will win, then walk away.It’s the same as “three pounds lower than running in the…” well, that’s again no good if this race is stronger than that one on paper, three pounds means zilch.There has to be another reason why a horse will or won’t win.If he is back to his last winning mark (such as today’s Norfolk National favourite Game Line), does he have the conditions to replicate the victory? Why was he beaten off two pounds higher last time? Was it in the same grade of race as today? Is it over his optimum trip? Is the opposition unexposed?It’s such lazy work for one to say: “He is two pounds below his last winning mark” – especially when a horse was beaten off just two pounds higher last time out. There needs to be something accompanying that. Is he back at a favoured track? Has he dropped back to the right distance? Has he been waiting for soft ground? There should be multiple reasons to accompany the above quote; otherwise, it’s useless information, so don’t be misled.Until tomorrow, be luckyFollow Daryl Carter on Twitter @DarylCarter7

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