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Today’s Racing News: King and Cannon to Isolate their rivals in Ludlow feature

There’s plenty for punters to get stuck into on Wednesday with five meetings including Fairyhouse, Ludlow and Sedgefield and Daryl Carter’s on hand to provide all the day’s stats and betting angles…

There were plenty of winners throughout yesterday’s column as the Mark Your Card section provided three winners at 5/2, 5/4 and 7/1, while our race of the day feature saw Revels Hill win well at Taunton at 3/1.

Let’s hope for a few more today with many meetings to highlight. Our feature action comes from Ludlow, a competitive handicap chase to try and dissect.

Money Talk

Money Talk continues to highlight the Betfair Sportsbook big-money moves to keep you in the loop. This section highlights market moves between 1:00 am and 9:00 am.

15:00 Ludlow – Bellatrixsa 9/4 into 13/8
16:40 Sedgefield – Cailin Dearg 11/2 into 4/1
20:00 Kempton – Fred Bear – 12/1 into 9/1

The morning market drifters !

Which horse is the Betfair Sportsbook market suggesting to Lay?

15:52 Fakenham – Ballyandy 6/4 OUT 2/1

Mark your card

The Betfair Sportsbook is paying extra places today!

In the 13:37 at Sedgefield, four-year-old’s receive 12 pounds weight-for-age allowance and useful flat horse Patient Dream 2.77/4 drops into calmer waters and will look to get off the mark over hurdles at the third attempt. Favourites have a 56% strike rate in non-handicaps at Sedgefield.

Trainer Peter Bowen operates at a 24% strike rate over fences at Sedgefield and his best chance of the day comes in the 16:07 Handicap with Getastar 4.57/2.

At Fakenham in the 13:52 Handicap Hurdle, trainer Neil Mulholland has a 32% strike rate over hurdles and owner JP McManus has a 21% strike rate. Today they partner with Sainte Doctor 2.915/8.

In the 15:52 Handicap Hurdle, Ballyandy 2.68/5 steps up to 3m and is ridden by ten-pound claimer Fin Lambert to run off a mark of 127 – the lowest effectively of his career (same mark at Wetherby).

In the same race, trainer Stuart Edmunds saddles the youngest horse in the field with Havana Hermano 4.57/2, and Edmunds has a 33% strike rate over hurdles and could prove to be the danger to the favourite – forecast anybody?

In the 13:30 at Ludlow, Evan Williams saddles Heronard 2.56/4, who arguably should be two for two over fences after bad mistakes in both outings but looks the best-handicapped horse in the race off the same mark.

Trainer Dan Skelton has a 21% strike rate over hurdles at Ludlow and Harry Skelton a 25% strike rate. They partner with Lakota Warrior 1.910/11 in the 14:00 and Aggy With It 6.511/2 in the 15:00.

Horses for courses

This section highlights horses that have won twice or more at today’s tracks and could be in with a chance today.

14:07 Sedgefield – Late Date – Has won here three times (38%)
14:22 Fakenham – Top Beak – Has won here twice (67%)
17:30 Kempton – Exceling – Has won here three times (60%)

Weighted to go well

“Weighted to go well” highlights horses running that are more than 10lbs below their last winning handicap mark.

14:30 Ludlow – Locks Corner – Has won off 140 runs off 125
16:07 Sedgefield – Raecius Felix – Has won off 117 runs off 98
16:25 Fakenham – Ruby Yates – Has won off 113 runs off 100

Form Watch

This section highlights a trainer, owner or jockey who is in excellent current form and their runners or rides for the day.

Trainer Roger Varian has had four winners from his last five runners (80%). Today he runs Moonis 3.02/1 in the 18:00 at Kempton.

Furthest traveller

Today’s furthest traveller is trainer Jimmy Frost who makes the 307-mile journey to Fakenham with two runners. Frost saddles Treacys Jim 5.59/2 in the 14:22 and the well-backed Gorcombe’s Rascal 22/1 into 17/2 in the 15:22.

Daughter Bryony Frost takes the ride on both of his runners, and she has a 25% strike rate at Fakenham.

Race of the day

We head to Ludlow for today’s feature action, the 14:30 Handicap Chase, which looks very tricky for punters, but it has been a race that has gone to the younger horse in recent runnings. No horse older than seven has won this contest in the last five years despite 25 of the 44 runners being eight or older.

SBK9/2

EXC6.6

Trainer: Fergal O’Brien
Jockey: Liam Harrison
Age: 10
Weight: 11st 12lbs
OR: 134

Gortroe Joe will look to buck that trend and score again in this race after landing the contest in 2019 when trained by Dan Skelton. He arrives here in a career-best form on the back of an 11 length romp at Kempton last time. A five-pound rise for that effort looks relatively lenient, but he is now a ten-year-old and sits on a career-high handicap mark.

His prominent racing style will be well-suited to this track that provides a stern test of jumping in the home straight, and he ticks plenty of boxes.

He has been in good form for a long while now, and he could prove challenging to peg back.

SBK5/2

EXC3.9

Trainer: Alan King
Jockey: Tom Cannon
Age: 6
Weight: 10st 12lbs
OR: 120

Isolate has a bit to find in the form book but bounced right back to something like his best when chasing home a fellow unexposed Novice who was subsequently better than the bare result when third at Cheltenham next time. He made a bad error at the third flight in that contest over course and distance, which always saw him on the back foot, and he deserves an upgrade for his strong finishing effort when unable to catch the winner who got the first run.

He needs to improve with the bare form of his Kempton win earlier in the season, not one to take literally, but his latest run was so full of promise it’s hard to think he doesn’t have more to offer.

He can jump to the left, so expect connections to keep him on the inside in a prominent position to avoid losing ground.

He is the right age for this contest, along with one other, and Tom Cannon back in the saddle is a positive to his chances.

SBK15/4

EXC5

Trainer: Tom George
Jockey: Jonathan Burke
Age: 6
Weight: 10st 11lbs
OR: 119

Crealion is the other six-year-old in the field and has been consistent this term without looking progressive. He hasn’t had the pace to challenge over this 2 1/2 mile trip, and he failed to stay at Wincanton when upped to three miles. He could be one to keep on side for when the ground gets more testing over this trip, and he should again find one or two better handicapped.

Big race verdict

There’s plenty of pace on in this contest. Still, Isolate has looked exceptional at this level at times, and he is taken to put it all together today after his latest effort suggested he had more to offer off of this handicap mark. He could be the answer in a tricky contest.

Timeform in search of better times at Fairyhouse

Timeform’s Andrew Asquith highlights a NAP, Next Best and Each Way selection at Fairyhouse on Wednesday.

Betfair Hurdle ante-post talk

The antepost betting for the Betfair Hurdle sees three horses evenly poised at the top of the market while last year’s winner Soaring Glory is just a point away from those rivals…

Calvin’s run through of Saturday’s action

Tony Calvin makes a strong case for two runners on Betfair Super Saturday at Newbury but urges patience from punters before getting involved in the betting…

Final Word – Recency bias

The big talking points at the moment revolve around the Supreme Novice Hurdle, and I see the same thing every single year. Recency bias is a cruel mistress. By recency bias, I mean whichever horse has run recently and put in a good performance, people seem to latch on to.

Jonbon was first out and was all the rage, and people seemed adamant that he was a “certainty” for the Supreme Novice Hurdle. Then came Mighty Potter, and then Consitution Hill, who could not be beaten. Fast forward a week, and it’s Dysart Dynamo who is the one they all have to beat. Now, to no surprise, it’s Sir Gerhard because of a time figure people posted concerning Honeysuckle at the Dublin Racing Festival.

My advice would be to calm the hell down. Not every one of these horses is going to prove a superstar! Don’t make the mistake of backing a horse solely on a time figure either, it’s never wise, and it doesn’t always relate to other courses.

We are in for one hell of a year, though, and what you previously saw still stands, even if another comes out and performs well.

Until tomorrow, be lucky.

Follow Daryl Carter on Twitter @DarylCarter7

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