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Today’s Racing News: Can Western Victory cause an upset against Clonmel’s big guns?

While Daryl Carter takes a well-earned break from steering the Daily Racing News ship, I’ll be at the tiller for the next seven days, starting with a busy Thursday that sees 2019 Irish Grand National winner and Aintree ‘Nash’ fourth Burrows Saint run over hurdles at Clonmel to start his season.

He lines up alongside Gordon Elliott’s chasing novice from last season Pencilfulloflead in the 13:30, and they add some stardust to the afternoon. No rain is forecast for Thursday in County Tipperary, but it hasn’t restricted the number of runners with nearly 100 decs at the time of writing over seven races. Big fields are the order of the day there.

Elsewhere the jumping action consists of Market Rasen, Wincanton and Leicester. The Midlands’ track plays host to a potentially exciting match-up between Dan Skelton’s highly-rated mare Nurse Susan against Jonjo O’Neill’s smart Flat recruit Zabeel Champion. Nurse Susan is available to back in the Mares’ Novice at Cheltenham at 17.016/1.

Flat enthusiasts have Chelmsford to mull over which starts at 16:00 at the Essex showground.

Money Talk

Money Talk continues to highlight the Betfair Sportsbook big-money moves to keep you in the loop. This section highlights market moves between 1:00 am and 9:00 am.

13:52 – Market Rasen – Avoir De Soins 4/1 from 5/1
14:30 – Clonmel – Even Flight 7/2 from 9/2
15:15 – Wincanton – Jony Max 5/6 from 11/8

The market says LAY!

Which horse is the Betfair Sportsbook market suggesting to Lay?

12:22 – Market Rasen – George Bancroft 11/8 out to 13/8
13:52 – Market Rasen – Begoodtoyourself 3/1 out to 9/2

Mark your card

The Betfair Sportsbook is paying extra places today!

Market Rasen has an Extra Place Special available on the Sportsbook for the 13:52. There are two at Clonmel at 14:00 and 14:30.

Irish trainer/rider Declan Queally has three entered at Clonmel, with two good chances according to the market with Western Victory 3.7511/4 and Lovely Moon 6.511/2. While it’s a small sample size, he is operating at 23% this season with nine winners from 39. All hurdlers. If you fancy taking on some of the bigger guns today….

Rutland trainer Mick Appleby recently celebrated his 100th success for the year (as Derek Thompson keeps reminding us, but well done Mick!) with The Horsewatchers’ Night On Earth – and well deserved too after hitting the 99 mark on a couple of occasions.

Appleby sends out Clipsham Tiger 6.511/2 to Chelmsford’s 16:00 Extra Place Special race, and he was a last time out winner at the track over 1m. The yard have a 12% strike-rate at the Essex venue and the horse looks ready for a step up to 1m2f off a low mark.

Roger Varian’s unexposed filly Mulberry Silk is in the same 16:00 and has a good staying pedigree and will enjoy the step up to 1m2f off the back off a much improved effort at Wolverhampton. The Newmarket legend Varian has Jack Mitchell booked and those two hit a healthy 24% strike-rate together. She was a big price last night at 7/1, although rated just 64, must be the lowest rated horse at Kremlin House.

The jovial Marco Ghiani, and heir apparent to Frankie Dettori, has a trio of booked rides to close the card with Shanghai Rock 4.03/1, Sir Rodneyredblood 4.03/1 and Alhammaam 12.011/1, and he lands in at a nice 17% win and 40% placed at Chelmsford.

Horses for courses

This section highlights horses that have won twice or more at today’s tracks and could be in with a chance today.

14:00 Clonmel – All The Chimneys – has won here twice (50%).

15:00 Clonmel – Shopping Around – has won here three times (100%).

13:52 Market Rasen – Dallas Cowboy – has won here twice (13%).

12:45 Wincanton – Kilbrew Boy – has won here twice (50%).

16:00 Chelmsford – Boy In The Bar – has won three times (33%). Clipsham Tiger has won twice (40%).

16:30 Chelmsford – Headingley – has won here three times (75%).

17:30 Chelmsford – Internationalangel – has won here twice (100%).

18:30 Chelmsford – Sir Rodneyredblood – has won here four times (40%).

19:00 Chelmsford – Kath’s Lustre – has won here five times (50%), and Excellent George – has won here four times (20%).

Weighted to go well

“Weighted to go well” highlights horses running that are more than 10lbs below their last winning handicap mark.

18:30 Chelmsford – Aleef – has won off 81 and runs off 63.

13:52 Market Rasen – Muroor – has won off 95 and runs off 75.

12:45 Leicester – Kilbrew Boy – has won off 112 now runs off 104.

Form Watch

This section highlights a trainer, owner or jockey who is in excellent current form and their runners or rides for the day.

Olly Murphy has been enjoying a purple patch as a trainer over the last two weeks with six winners from 18 runners at 33%, and the Warwickshire handler as plenty of good chances on Thursday if you are considering playing his in a Sportsbook multiple.

His runners are Tease And Seize 2.89/5 in the 12:52 at Market Rasen, Weebill 2.89/5 13:07 Leicester, Foxinthebox 2.68/5 13:22 Market Rasen (and named after Franny Jeffers, the original), Dubai Guest 2.915/8 14:22 Market Rasen, Strong Glance 6.511/2 14:45 Wincanton, Sporty Jim 4.57/2 15:22 Market Rasen and Rock On Tommy 4.57/2 in the 15:37 at Leicester.

Jockey Nico De Boinville is 6-13 in the last 14 days and returned to action yesterday at Haydock, he has two rides today with Parisian Blue 3.814/5 in the 13:15 Wincanton and On To Victory 3.814/5 14:45 Wincanton.

Furthest traveller

Sue Gardner’s 11yo Trans Express is known for his Exeter exploits, but he makes the 192 mile journey to Leicester for the 14:07. He is out of form and ran a shocker last time, but he was backed on the Sportsbook from 33/1 to 22/1 on Wednesday night and is off a winnable rating these days.

Fellow Devonian Harry Fry also sends Love Envoi 4.216/5 188 miles to the midlands track and she lines up in a good-looking mares’ maiden hurdle at 14:37 at Leicester.

Race of the day

It’s off to Clonmel for the quality, with Burrows Saint 3.814/5 and Pencilfulloflead 2.89/5 going head-to-head in a fascinating 3m hurdle at 13:30. Willie Mullins’ Burrows Saint was last seen finishing fourth in the Grand National in April and one would imagine it’s all systems go in terms of long-term prep for a Liverpool trip again – for which he is priced at 25/1 on the Sportsbook. He went on to run with credit in the Bobbyjo last term before his Aintree effort.

Willie hasn’t moaned about his handicap mark (yet!) and considering he was beaten in this race by 45L last year finishing second, it is hard to recommend him as a bet today.

Gordon Elliott’s Pencilfulloflead 2.89/5 goes well fresh and looks an out-and-out stayer. He boasts some high-class novice form over fences last term, including second in the Grade 1 Faugheen on St Stephen’s Day last winter. He did make a few mistakes over his fences, but he did win the Florida Pearl – a race Elliott has farmed in recent years with the likes of Jury Duty, A Toi Phil and Battleoverdoyen. But his best form has come in heavy conditions – which he won’t have today.

SBK9/4

EXC3.2

Trainer: Gordon Elliott, Ireland
Jockey: Davy Russell
Age: 7
Weight: 11st 2lbs
OR:

If the contest becomes tactical on yielding to soft ground, Western Victory looks the “wise guy” selection”. Although when I started writing this column, Western Victory was around 6.511/2 but that price has completely gone this morning.

She ran a stormer to finish second in a Grade B hurdle race at Galway from a mark in the high 130s, and while that form and rating wouldn’t be good enough to live with the two big guns mentioned over fences or granted their favoured conditions, she has made the running before and could have a bit more pace. Her one effort over 2m7f opened up a few options, but she is better over shorter, and she has to concede 3lb here which won’t be easy.

Big Race Verdict

It will be interesting to see what she can do if Declan Queally does go from the front. She could be a trade in-play from around 5.04/1, as she is game, tough and very consistent. And has already earned her connections over 110,000 euro in prize-money. It’s a dreadful cliche, but it could be her cup final. Or Anglo Italian final if you are like me and a West Ham supporter starved off success.

SBK5/2

EXC3.9

Trainer: Declan Queally, Ireland
Jockey: D. L. Queally
Age: 8
Weight: 11st 5lbs
OR:

Timeform offer up three of their best

Andrew Asquith from the Halifax nerve centre has previewed Chelmsford’s card this evening that gets underway at 16:00. His nap, NB and each-way selections include a Marco Ghiani mount under the floodlights.

Rhys is the man in form

Our daily racing tipster Rhys Williams has been in electric form over the last three days. Rhys’ knowledge of the Point-To-Point programme is exceptional and his week has included a good win at Ayr for Buzz De Turcoing, and placed efforts with Carlow Farmer (advised at 66/1) and Tikitov (advised at 22/1). His profit for the year is past 150 points so don’t miss his Thursday selections.

Tony’s London National tip

Our lead tipster Tony Calvin is boasting close to a 200pt profit since April and while I am looking forward to the live show at Sandown on Friday with the pod crew, TC has previewed the Betfair-sponsored action coming up at Sandown and has a 16/1 recommendation for the London National.

With those two hitting nearly 350 points in profit, I feel a bit like Norman Wisdom going on stage after Elvis Presley and The Rolling Stones, but I’ll give my Daily Racing Multiple column a plug as there was a 10.09/1 winner and a second yesterday – missing out on a 19/1 double by a neck.

Final Word

Thanks to Daryl Carter for handing me the “cravache d’or” for the remainder of this week and next, so I hope he enjoys Sandown, along with the rest of you. We’ll have some great content over the next few days for Sandown, and if you are on Twitter, I’ll be giving away some signed racecards (trainer and jockey) involving two great Flat horses over the next week.

More details will follow on Thursday on the Betfair tweets. But if you like a certain top mare from 2012 who was the “Wonder From Down Under”, you might be interested.

Good luck as Daryl would say!

You can follow me on Twitter @DudmanAl

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