St Patrick’s Day at the Cheltenham Festival always turns into a day to remember for a variety of boozy reasons – will you nail the winner of the first handicap of the day?
12 from the last 13 between 6 and 10 hurdle runs
Only two winners in the last 20 actually won a qualifier. Their last run was to win a qualifier no more than 40 days before this final
Three of the last four Irish winners were novices
No winner older than seven in the last five.
Five of the last six Irish Trained winners ran in the Leopardstown Qualifier
13 of the last 24 won last time from about 20% of qualifying runners.
Last eight winners all rated between 138 and148
No conditional jockey has won since 2011
This century no beaten favourite last time has won
Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls have yet to win this
Race Distance – about 3 miles.
Unlikely to have won a Pertemps Qualifier unless last run was winning one inside 35 days of the Final.
Not older than seven yrs.
Look for those 7yrs and under with a starting price under 10s.
Top weights can win this.
Placed at least at Cl2 level.
Has won a race between 2m 4f and 2m 6f.
If a compressed handicap to be rated between 138 and 148.
Look for those unplaced in the Leopardstown Qualifier.
Between 6 and 10 hurdle runs.
Not a previous course winner unless previously placed in this or previous G1 Hurdle winner.
Not blinkered unless previous Festival placed.
Conditional jockeys can get placed but rarely win.
JP likes to win this.
Last time out winners perform just above their numbers.
Not a beaten favourite last time.
Was switched to the New Course in 2005. New entry rule for 2016 – now need to have finished in the first 6 in a Pertemps Qualifier to get in. Now the skill is not to win the qualifier but finish 4th, 5th or 6th and make sure your rating is above 135.
Tout Est Permis
Copper Gone West
Anytime Will Do
Sire Du Berlais
A Great View
Unplaced in Leopardatown Qualifier
Tout Est Permis – 7yo
Sire Du Berlais – 8yo
A Great View – 8yo
Sire Du Berlais
A Great View
A Great View – OR 142 (Does not fit age target)
Tout Est Permis – OR 136 (does not fit owner target)
Sire Du Berlais, 0.5pts e/w 7/1 (5 places)
Fails the age stat by 1 year (8yo), and fails OR rating target (133-145 RP stats, is rated 152 OR). But, won this last year, coated into 4th without much effort. See perfect RP comments for Warwick qualifier: “Held up, hampered 2nd, behind and pushed along 5th, stayed on from 2 out, not trouble leaders”. And prior to Warwick when 9th in Leopardstown qualifier (see unplaced Leop qualifier stat) “pushed along towards rear before 2 out and some late headway, kept on”. So he’s absolutely coasted into this perfectly without really being troubled. He should be bang on for the day and has a solid e/w chance.
Tout Est Permis, 0.5pts e/w 14/1
Hard to know what to make of Tout Est Permis. Lowly rated over hurdles but that could easily be on purpose. Ran in Leopardstown qualifier, finished 4th having been 9th 3 out. Could easily be ‘under the radar’ so worth a small e/w punt as fits a couple of stats.