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Paddy Power Gold Cup

Paddy Power Gold Cup Big Race Trends

dynasteThis year sees the 54th renewal of the Paddy Power Gold Cup and the extended two and a half mile handicap chase boasts a record prize fund of £160,000.

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Up and down the country punters will be plotting a betting attack on the race and while finding the winner will be a tough ask, we have collated and researched all the relevant trends and statistics that can help you come to a logical conclusion.

  • Irish horses have a pretty poor record in the race, having only won the prestigious handicap five times.

When the Edward O’Grady-trained Tranquil Sea stormed to a commanding four and a half-length success in 2009 he broke a 29-year drought for the Irish. Once again the challenge from the Emerald Isle looks thin on the ground with the shortest price of their contenders being Hidden Cyclone for trainer Jo Hanlon.

  • Despite the competitiveness of the Paddy Power Gold Cup, it is not a race for outsiders as 43 of the 53 runnings have been won by horses returned at odds of 10/1 or less.

Eliminating the outsiders and concentrating on the horses at the head of the market looks the shrewdest way to play the market. The last horse outsider to win the contest was Senor El Betrutti in 1997 at odds of 33/1.

  • The overall record of favourites is not great, with only 14 having been successful during the history of the race.

Any punter looking to latch on to the market springer may want to hold fire. Dynaste looks the most likely horse to be punted heavily this year considering his connections, best to stay clear in our opinion. For the record, the shortest-priced winner was Dunkirk who went off the 11/10 favourite in 1965.

  • Every winner since 1991 had already won over at least two and a half miles.

This is a statistic that bodes well for the backers of most of the market leaders but no so much for those lumping on the chances on the maiden Colour Squadron and the consistent but hard to win with Walkon.

  • Nigel Twiston-Davies is the most successful current trainer in the Paddy Power Gold Cup.

Little Josh, who was given a fine ride by Sam Twiston-Davies, gave NTD a third victory in 2010, following on from Imperial Commander and Tipping Tim (1992). This year his chances lie at the hooves of Astracad, who can be backed at 20/1 but has yet to win over the required distance.

  • It’s well worth noting that 12 of the last 15 winners had previously won over fences at Cheltenham.

Cheltenham is regarded as the pinnacle track of National Hunt racing for a reason.

It takes a very gutsy and classy horse to prevail there, and course form should always be high on a trend checklist for punters assessing a graded race at Prestbury Park.

Ante-post favourite Dynaste has a win under his belt at Cheltenham courtesy of landing the Steel Plate And Sections Novices’ Chase at last year’s Open meeting. Johns Spirit also has a lot going for him in that department having won the key trial over course and distance at the Showcase meeting while Finian’s Rainbow won the Champion Chase in 2012.

Horses at the head of the betting that don’t fit this trend are Ballynagour, Hidden Cyclone and especially Champion Court, who has always looked vulnerable when tasked with Cheltenham’s infamous hill.

Recommended Bet: Back Johns Spirit @ 6/1 with Paddy Power

Jonjo O’Neil’s horse ticks plenty of boxes from a trends perspective for the Paddy Power and can hand his talented trainer his second winner of the race.

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