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Monday’s Racing Tip: 11/2 Blue Heron overpriced at Southwell

The Cheltenham Festival is edging closer. We are now just eight sleeps away from the Supreme Novices Hurdle and Lewis Jones is hoping to bang in a fair few winners between now and then to increase his confidence and profit ratios. He’s at Southwell today and his hoping an 11/2 shot runs better than the markets expect….

Trainer Dan Skelton is loving life since leaving Paul Nicholls’ yard and starting up on his own and punters should always give his horses a second look.

Our eyes have been very much drawn to the chances of the Skelton-trained Blue Heron today at Southwell, who runs in the £5 Free Irish Lotto Bet At totepool.com Intermediate National Hunt Flat Race (Southwell 5.05).

The six-year-old has some strong form in the book that shapes up nicely against rivals today that haven’t made their debuts yet.

The six-year-old showed plenty of ability when getting outstayed by Bobble Boru, who franked the form next the time out, at Ludlow when making his debut in November. That run was filled with promise as he lacked plenty of experience when the race entered the business end and was trapped for toe before staying on nicely to finish a close second.

That decent showing didn’t go unnoticed by the markets next time out as he went off a very well backed odds-on favourite at Ludlow.

He duly delivered the goods too, travelling like a very decent horse from the front and the one length winning distance probably didn’t do his true authority justice on the day. It’s fair to assume that the runner-up Hughsie also is thought of quite highly in the Evan Williams yard, so the form once again can be seen as stronger than on first viewing.

His experiences on a racecourse should count for plenty against the likes of the well-bred Heston, who has a great make-up but looks very short in the betting. Get on the selection with a strong three point win stake at 11/2.

Profit & Loss Record: Staked: 323pts Returned: 300.62pts P/L: -22.38pts

(Cheltenham ante post book: 2pts West Wizard in Supreme Novices Hurdle 8/1 & 1pts EW Harry Topper in Gold Cup 50/1 & 2pts EW Corrin Wood in RSA Chase 16/1 & 1pt Boston Bob in World Hurdle 11/1 & 2pts Felix Yonger in Arkle Chase & 1pt EW on Kid Cassidy in Champion Chase & 2pts EW on Oscar Whisky in JLT Chase)

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