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Kim Muir Challenge Cup

St Patrick’s Day at the Cheltenham Festival is brought to a close with the Kim Muir Challenge Cup, a race which could make or break your day in terms of profit…

Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Steeple Chase

HEADLINES
The last four David Pipe trained finishing 1st or 2nd in this had not been seen for at least 75 days
Irish Trained had 8 favs in the last 17, all beaten.
Jamie Codd has won this four times, Derek O’Connor once and thrice a runner up
Only two claiming jockeys have got a first three placing in the last 11 races
Last 15 winners had at least two runs this season
14 from the last 15 winners aged between 7 to 9 years
10 of the last 14 achieved their best RPR within their last two runs, three of the exceptions were JP owned and returned at less than 9/1
P Nicholls and W Mullins yet to win this

Summary
This race was changed to the New Course in 2009. Race Distance – 3 miles and abt 2 furlongs, half a furlong longer since 2014. Still a 0 – 145 handicap. Last eleven renewals have been on the New Course.

Look for:
Will be aged 7 to 9 years unless trained by D Pipe.
Nothing placed above a 10 yr old unless Henderson or Pipe trained.
Will be either a novice, placed at a previous festival or ran in a hcap chase at the International meeting.
Either between 9 and 20 previous runs over fences or less than 7 previous chase runs and strongly fancied.
Winner rated at least 137.
Unless a full range handicap winner will carry more than 11st 2 lbs after allowances taken off.
Unless near the h’cap ceiling, last race will have been in a handicap over at least 3 miles.
Not necessary to have won a handicap chase.
Has competed in at least a G3 this season but has not won this season anything but an ordinary novice chase.
Not a handicap debutant nor French bred.
Best RPR achieved within previous two runs, unless well fancied and probably McManus owned.
At least two runs this season but may not have been seen for months.
Either has won a NH race over 3 miles or has top class placed form over at least that distance.
Will have finished at least 3rd in either of last two runs or is under 10/1.
Unlikely to be from Ditcheat or Closutton.
Other Irish trained punch well above their numbers.
Headgear wearing very much in vogue recently.
Can be carnage here.
Winning jockey a non claiming amateur.
Derek and Jamie worth half a stone.
Laying beaten favourites last time out still pays.

Contenders:
Cabaret Queen
Fitzhenry
Deise Aba
Bob Mahler
Kilfilum Cross
Like The Sound

All fit the age group, rated within 6lb of the RPR top rated, 9-20 runs over fences, not beaten fav lto, won over at least 3m.

Like The Sound hasn’t won over 3m, but has won over 3m2f and 3m4f
Only Like The Sound has contested a G3
Le Breuil Doesn’t fit the above criteria but Jamie Codd has won this 4 times, so is a jockey target.
Champagne Platinum doesn’t fit the above criteria, but is McManus owned a well fancied, best RPR within last 2 runs.

Stats suggest:
Like Sound, Le Breuil, Champagne Platinum

My selection:
Le Breuil, 0.5pts e/w 7/1 (5 places)
Champagne Platinum, 0.5pts e/w 6/1 (5 places)
If Champagne Platinum was Irish trained he would be one to avoid, but JP Owned and clearly fancied in the market. Beaten a fair way in 3rd in Scicilly Isles las time out but this is easier and with Derek OConnor on board he has to have a live chance.
Le Breuil has JJ Codd on board who’s won this 4 times so has to be respected just on jockey bookings.The pair won round here last year so the course form is a big positive for me, and again they have a good e/w chance.

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