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Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams’ NAP is a chaser at Exeter

Rhys Williams has analysed Tuesday’s racing and has a sole selection at Exeter.

Big drop in class from latest starts

Exeter 14:26: Madera Mist 1pt win 5/2

Wind Tor is the odds-on favourite for this mares’ handicap chase and while I think she has more ability than her rating of 94, she’s a thorough stayer so I’m not sure the combination of a small field with a likely steady pace and the drying ground will see her at her best.

I think Madera Mist is capable of capitalising under these circumstances as she makes her return to action after 151 days off the track. She contested a class 3 amateur jockeys handicap at Cheltenham when last seen and her chance was severely impacted when she slithered on landing at the second. She could never get into a challenging position and her jumping wasn’t great but she stayed on for pressure to finish ninth.

Prior to that she had run well twice in defeat off the same mark that she races off today. On the first of those occasions, she was unfortunate to run into Win My Wings at Cheltenham. She then finished second to Floral Bouquet, who won again next time, at Uttoxeter when Madera Mist was given a very patient ride and was still in last at 3 out before running on strongly to be beaten 1 1/4 lengths.

The drying ground will be no issue for Madera Mist and she now drops down into a class 5 having raced in a class 3 on her last three starts.

SBK9/4

EXC3.35

Trainer: Tim Vaughan
Jockey: Alan Johns
Age: 8
Weight: 11st 12lbs
OR: 102

There is a slight concern that she has jumped to her left in the past so going right-handed might not be ideal but that’s not as much of a worry at Exeter as it might be at a tighter track. It may also be that this is a prep for the Cheltenham April meeting so she won’t be at her peak.

However, despite these worries, I think she’s overpriced in a weak race and any 9/4 or bigger appeals.

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