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Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams likes two against an odds-on favourite at Wolverhampton

Rhys Williams has analysed Monday’s racing and has two selections at Wolverhampton.

“The longer trip should suit him and if he can build on his flat debut then I think he has a better chance of reversing the form with the favourite than the market suggests.”

Encouraging flat debut behind fav last time

Wolverhampton 18:30: Early Morning Dew 1pt win 7/1

Screaming Petrus is the odds-on favourite for this maiden and he’s run well on both starts but it’s worrying that what might have been considered greenness on debut when hanging left was repeated on his second start so he might not be the most straightforward.

Early Morning Dew finished one place behind him last time at this course over 2 1/2 f shorter but he was arguably unlucky to not finish ahead of him. He was briefly pushed along early on and raced towards the back of the field and was in second last with three furlongs to go. Having been nudged along turning the final bend, he was badly hampered by Handel early in the home straight. He wasn’t given a hard time after that and was only bumped along late on to finish third.

This was an encouraging performance from Early Morning Dew who had become disappointing over hurdles considering the early promise he showed in bumpers. The longer trip should suit him and if he can build on his flat debut then I think he has a better chance of reversing the form with the favourite than the market suggests.

There is a concern that it wasn’t an overly strong race last time and maybe he was flattered by others underperforming but this isn’t a good race either and any 6/1 or bigger appeals.

May bounce back on return to the flat

Wolverhampton 18:30: Royal Regard 0.5pt win 22/1

Royal Regard has been disappointing over hurdles but I wouldn’t be surprised if he showed more on his return to the flat than the market is expecting.

He made his debut on the flat at Deauville at this time last year and showed some ability in a race that has worked out very well. The winner and fourth have both gone on to win Listed races while the third has finished third in a Listed race and the fifth has been placed twice in Group races.

He hasn’t shown too much over hurdles since but I think the run at Wetherby last time gave a clue as to why as he was backing off and hesitant at the hurdles.

It might be that he has had a problem since his flat debut which has caused him to not progress as might have been expected and he was quite weak at the finish that day so it might be that he doesn’t find much for pressure but in a weak maiden I think his chance has been overlooked a little and any 20/1 or bigger appeals.

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