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Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams likes an outsider at Haydock

Rhys Williams has gained a profit with both selections so far this week and he has a sole selection today at Haydock…

“Those are off today and he now returns to hurdling which I think could bring a revival given his jumping has let him down over fences.”

Haydock 13:15: Carlow Farmer 0.5pt e/w 66/1

Carlow Farmer has a very inconsistent profile and his failure to complete in his last four starts wouldn’t inspire confidence but I think he’s capable of running better than his huge price suggests on his return to hurdling.

He won an Irish point on debut before being off the track for 625 days prior to his first start for Charlie Longsdon in a maiden hurdle at Exeter. He showed some ability that day and duly stepped up on that when finishing third next time at Doncaster behind The Macon Lugnatic and Sevarano.

He ran disappointingly when sent off joint favourite after that at Southwell and again at Lingfield on his seasonal debut last season but he bounced back at Hereford with a tongue tie on for the first time. Prominent from the off, he went to the front turning out of the back straight for the final time and he still held a very narrow lead at the last but he landed flat-footed and had nothing left on the run-in, finishing 8 3/4 lengths behind Beatthebullet.

Carlow Farmer didn’t jump or travel particularly well at Doncaster after that when pulled up and there was a repeat of that on chasing debut at Hereford.

He had a wind op prior to his first start of this season over fences at Uttoxeter and he put up a far more encouraging performance. He tracked the leader from the off and while his jumping lacked fluency at various stages, he was still in touch in third turning into the home straight for the final time. He gradually lost touch after 4 out but was still in third when unseating rider at 2 out. That looked a good race for the grade with the second and third winning next time out and the fourth and fifth finishing second next time out.

He has run badly at Worcester since but he was never going or jumping that day and it might be that the reapplication of the cheekpieces had a negative effect.

Those are off today and he now returns to hurdling which I think could bring a revival given his jumping has let him down over fences. This thorough test of stamina is also likely to suit given his performance at Hereford last season and a repeat of the level of ability he showed that day wouldn’t put him far away in a race of this quality.

Given his inconsistency, there is the obvious concern that Carlow Farmer will not be on a going day and run badly again and it might be that this isn’t the ideal track for him but the market has completely overlooked him and any 33/1 or bigger appeals.

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