Connect with us

news

Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams has a trio of chasers to back

Rhys Williams was on the mark with his 6/1 NAP yesterday and returns today with three selections at Doncaster and Ffos Las.

“I think it was generous of the handicapper to drop him 5lb for the Ludlow run.”

Return to left-handed track to suit

Doncaster 14:45: Wildfire Warrior 1pt win 13/2

Wildfire Warrior finished last on chasing debut at Ludlow but I think he’s capable of running far better today now back on a left-handed track.

At Ludlow he jumped out to the left to varying degrees throughout but was still in touch at the back of the field when making a bad mistake at 3 out and was eventually beaten thirty lengths.

Prior to that this season Wildfire Warrior ran well in a couple of handicap hurdles, not seeing out the trip in the second of them at Chepstow over 2m7 1/2 f.

I think it was generous of the handicapper to drop him 5lb for the Ludlow run given that there was an obvious reason why he ran below expectations and the ability he showed over hurdles suggests that he can be competitive today off a mark of 113.

Given just how markedly he jumped left-handed at Ludlow there’s a slight concern that he might repeat that even on a left-handed track unless he’s right on the inside but I think he’s got more to offer and any 5/1 or bigger appeals.

Completely unsuitable test last time

Ffos Las 15:37: Thomas Patrick 1pt win 16/1

Thomas Patrick has been on the decline since pulling up when favourite for the 2018 Ladbrokes Trophy but I think he might be capable of staging a revival today.

He was off the track for over a year prior to running at Exeter two starts ago and although he never got into a position to challenge, I thought it was mildly encouraging that he at least kept plugging on up the home straight having got detached to finish eighth.

He was puzzlingly stepped back in trip to race over 2m3 1/2 f at Chepstow last time and it was no surprise that he was taken off his feet and was well behind from an early stage.

Given the obviously unsuitable nature of that race, I think the handicapper has been generous in dropping him 7lb so he’s now off a stone lower mark than when racing at Exeter.

Thomas Patrick has typically made the running or at least been very handy in his races and I expect that they will look to return to those tactics today having raced in midfield at Exeter over this trip two starts ago.

It might be that the decline will continue but I think he’s overpriced in a race of this quality and any 12/1 or bigger appeals.

Good form on testing ground in points

Ffos Las 16:40: Doc Carver 1pt win 12/1

There are questions to answer for the whole field in the hunter chase in a tricky contest. Pure Vision might outclass these but he’s returning from a 447-day absence while the ground might not be ideal for Envoye Special and Hazzaar’s jumping is a concern back under rules.

At a much bigger price than those three is Doc Carver and I think the market is underestimating his chance under these conditions.

He finished in a dead-heat for second in a Conditions race on the point track at Ffos Las in November when never put into the race and the other horse that dead-heated has since won an Intermediate.

On his latest start at Chaddesley Corbett he finished second behind Virak. He made up a lot of ground from halfway down the back straight and jumped to the front at 2 out but was joined again at the last and couldn’t match that rival on the run-in. If Virak was running in this race, I expect he would be near the front of the market.

There is a worry that Doc Carver might be best having a quick pace to close into over a bit further and Rebecca Pugh will need to make sure the horse doesn’t lose touch early on over this shorter trip but I think he’s capable of running well and any 10/1 or bigger appeals.

Click to comment

You must be logged in to post a comment Login

Leave a Reply

Gamble Aware Gamble Aware aims to promote responsibility in gambling. They provide information to help you make informed decisions about your gambling. Call the National Gambling Helpline: freephone 0808 8020 133 8am to midnight, 7 days a week. 18+ You must be 18 years old or over to use this site. Please bet responsibly. About Us | Contact Us | Cookies & Privacy