As one of the trickiest punting conundrums of the entire Cheltenham Festival, the Fred Winter falls under the radar of many operators, however, there is a way to crack this race….
No winner had run at Cheltenham before.
P Nicholls has run 19 French breds. Three winners and seven placed.
None of the last seven winners was a filly.
Two of the six runners carrying a penalty have won.
Only two of the last nine won last time out.
No winner that started its career under National Hunt rules did so in Britain or Ireland.
Last six winners rated between 129 and 139.
Only one winning favourite since 2010.
Willie Mullins, Philip Hobbs, Venetia Williams yet to win this.
In six of the last seven a hood wearer has finished in the first five home.
No last time BF in a UK or IRE race has ever won.
Race Distance – 2 miles and abt half a furlong.
Going 15 yrs.
Either fav or beaten last time possibly in a graded hurdle especially if Irish trained.
Useful to have a previous hurdle time for 2 miles in soft ground of under 4mins 16 secs or has a flat rating of over 80.
Ratings 129 to 139. Won’t help.
Ran in the previous 32 days or has only run in France.
Either has run only a maximum of 3 times over hurdles in Uk/Ire or has run up a sequence of at least three wins this season.
May have competed against older horses last time out.
Not a filly.
Not a conditional/amateur jockey.
Could be blinkered.
Horse wearing a hood in the first five home.
Last run not in a handicap.
Penalised runners have punched above their numbers.
Trifecta Perm due covering the front four in the market.
Not BF last time.
Paul Nicholls targets this.
If any trainer has had at least two winners already today, back all their runners.
W Mullins, Venetia Williams or Philip Hobbs yet to shine here.
Winner never ran here before.
In 2015 Maximum number of runners dropped to 22 from 24. Hasn’t really helped.
I’ve been through the field at least 3 times and only managed to whittle 6 away.
Those are the ones with an overall rating over 134 (Official rating 127 to 134 won 9/10 – Racing Post stat):
Clemecia (no OR rating)
If we go by the above (Gaultstats) as suggested P Nicholls targets this, Thyme White fits that profile and he has won a Listed contest lto. He beat re-opposing Goa Lil & Group Stage.
Galahad Quest won a Grade 2 las time out.
Saint D’Oroux won very well last time out y 24 lengths and could be anything.
It’s not really a race I can comfortably advise in, because it’s a race where anything could win, so I’ll save my money. Any of the above e/w for those wishing to bet.