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Epsom Derby: Why Australia will get beat at 11/10 on Saturday

This Saturday Australia will put his lofty reputation on the line in 2014 Epsom Derby. Aidan O’Brien’s potential superstar is a general 11/10 shot across the board but Lewis Jones is advising everyone to keep their money in their pockets. Here’s why….

Joseph O’Brien is tactically very immature and gets bullied by other jockeys in big fields

Many will argue that having already won a Derby, O’Brien will deal with the occasion just fine on Saturday. However, the Derby that Camelot won two years was arguably one of the weakest renewals since records began and only nine runners went to post.

Most professional jockeys could have steered home Camelot that day.

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Time and time again young Joseph is caught napping in big field races, where he undoubtedly sits on the best horse.

There are 17 runners scheduled to go to post on Saturday and Epsom is not a place for tactical nimrods. With its twisting nature and steep cambers, it’s very easy to find trouble and get penned it, especially in a Derby where runners can fall back through the field very quickly.

Australia does have a lot of pace, which will help O’Brien get a good position, but I haven’t seen enough from the jockey yet to suggest he’s a reliable enough to carry my money at short prices. Stay clear.

You can’t categorically predict that Australia’s form is of a greater level than at least five of his market rivals

This year’s 2000 Guineas is, on first viewing, the strongest piece of form on offer in terms of a Derby trial this season.

The runner-up Kingman and fourth Shifting Power showed that in the Irish 2000 Guineas.

Australia finished a staying on third that day (did Joseph leave it too late again?) and has the breeding to think that he’ll stay 1m4f just fine.

But this is a race deep with untapped potential at this distance in my mind.

The likes of Western Hymn, Arod, Fascinating Rock and even Australia’s stablemate Geoffrey Chaucer all could be superstars when racing over this type of trip. It will only take one of them to improve past Australia to send your money down the drain on the favourite.

For 10/11 you can have the entire field running for you against an overhyped horse that has yet to win a Group One or prove that he even stays this trip. Don’t be a plonker. Take him on.

 

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