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Dawn Run Mares Novices Hurdle Tips

Dawn Run Mares Novices Hurdle

HEADLINES

Race distance – 2 miles and about a furlong. All carry 11st 2lbs apart from 4 yr olds – 10st 12lbs. Penalties for having won Class 1 or 2 hurdle.

2016 – Limini capped a good day for Irish trained and short priced treble kings after Thistlecrack and Vautour. An Irish bred five year old, carrying 11 st 7lb trained by Willie Mullins and steered by Ruby Walsh. 8/11 fav. Not out since strolling the G3 Solerina Mares Novice Hurdle over 2m2f at Fairyhouse 46 days ago by 11 lengths.

2017 – Lets Dance capped a great day for Ruby and Willie with another short priced treble after Yorkhill and Un De Sceaux. A nicer 4 timer if you had thrown in Nichols Canyon. A FR Bred five year old, carrying 11st 7lb trained by Willie Mullins and steered by Ruby Walsh. 11/8 fav. Not out since strolling the Nathaniel Lacy G2 Novice Hurdle over 2m4f at Leopardstown 46 days ago by 6 lengths.

2018 – Laurina made it a Closutton treble. A French Bred 5 yr old, carrying 11st 7lb trained by Willie Mullins and steered by Paul Townend (Ruby injured the day before). 4/7 fav. Not out since strolling the G3 Solerina Mares Novice Hurdle over 2m2f at Fairyhouse 47 days ago by 11 lengths.

2019 – Any fool would have realised that the only way to go here was seven £5 singles on all of Willie’s runners. (No, don’t be silly). Eglantine Du Seuil (FR), a fine ride by Noel Fehily got up from Concertista and Danny Mullins. Both 5 yr olds carried 11st 2 lb. Noel immediately announced his retirement, Danny has yet to ride a Festival winner and was unlucky here. SPs, I hear you ask? 50/1 beats 66/1. Who knows what was the Betfair SP. Another stat to prove that Willie in the novices sometimes just gets them here. Even he may not know which one is the one. Winner had previously won a maiden hurdle but hadn’t been seen out since 3rd at Listowel in September. G Elliott trained finished 3rd and 4th. Thats 4 from 4 for Clusotton. Epatante well beaten at 15/8 fav, Posh Trish well punted at 3/1 also.

Only Tintangle 3rd last year has been placed wearing headgear in all 4 races.

2020 – Should be easy enough? Trained by Willie.

Henry de Bromhead won the Solerina Mares with Minella Melody, Willie filled the places with Colreevy fav and Dolcita, all three clear of the rest. ‘A lovely mare’ says Henry, not known for being positive. Won the Solerina last year with Honeysuckle.

Racing Post slightly more helpful here:
– RPR of at least 153 (10/10)

– At least 9 career starts (9/10)
– Top 3 finish in G1 or 2 Hurdle (9/10)
– Trained by Mullins (8/10)
– Won LTO (7/10)

Based on the above stats:
Concertista

My selection:
Minella Melody, 1pt win 11/4
Beat re-opposing Colreevy in January very convincingly when giving her weight. She drops back a furlong which should help with the unknown of the uphill finish, having never raced here nor at Leopardstown. Struggle to see how Concertista is rated higher.

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