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Cheltenham Trends : Lewis takes a look at any trends across the four days

Tuesday, Festival Handicap Chase

  • 10 of the last 14 winners started in the first four in the betting
  • 8 of the last 17 winners had placed at the Cheltenham Festival before
  • 7 of the last 12 winners won last time out

Who fits the bill?

Although ANACOTTY hasn’t officially placed at the Cheltenham Festival before, the fact he has finished eighth in the Grade One RSA Chase probably excuses him on that front.

His last time out win also came at Cheltenham when him and Big Fella Thanks ran sound races to finish within a length of each other with Martin Keighley’s charge coming out on top. He knows how to win. He knows how to battle. And, boy, can he jump.

Wednesday, Coral Cup

  • 8 of the last 10 winners were second season hurdlers
  • 16 of the 21 winners had won earlier in the season

Who fits the bill?

TIGER ROLL comes into this year’s race as a previous Cheltenham Festival winner courtesy of his victory in the Triumph Hurdle. Many have slated that form since but off a rating of 150, he may just find enough purchase in his handicap mark to win a Coral Cup as he loves the track and ticks both of the aforementioned trends criteria.

The 16/1 is a more than fair price.

Thursday, Pertempts Final

  • Horses aged 8 or older have won 7 of the last 9 renewals
  • J P McManus has owned three winners
  • Only one winning five year old in the race’s 41 year history
  • Only one of the last 11 winners started at single figure odds

Who fits the bill?

You need a gutsy and streetwise character to win this gruelling handicap and ALIVAIN is the one for this year’s race. Owned by the handicap king JP McManus, this lad has been around the block a fair few times but comes into Cheltenham in great form, judging by his performance behind Regal Encore in a handicap at Exeter.

The markets have let him slip under the radar by pricing him up at 16/1.

Friday, Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase

  • 14 of the last 15 winners carried under 11st
  • Novices have won 13 of the last 33 runnings
  • Five year olds have an eye-catching record from very runners.
  • Only one of the last 14 winners was aged 10+
  • Only one winner since 1990 had been off the course for over 45 days

The “get out of jail stakes” as it’s otherwise known to punters has thrown up some very exciting races over the years and some good results for market following punters.

This race is seen as a good trends race and looking at it this year has led us to SOLAR IMPULSE from the all-conquering Paul Nicholls yard.

This young chaser has taken his time to come to the boil after having a lofty reputation at Ditcheat but ran very good races in behind Josses Hill and Three Kingdoms, who are both Arkle bound.

Some would say he is too inexperienced for a race like this but the stats prove that we’re more likely to see a young horse go in than an experienced one.

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